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Transcript

Why air strikes don't deliver regime change

What's the actual endgame?

This discussion:

Tim Mak and Andrew Fox debate whether bombing alone can topple the Iranian regime, with Fox arguing that history—from Kosovo to Iraq—shows airpower rarely achieves regime change without forces on the ground.

The two explore how a limited war could spiral into a larger one, discussing scenarios like special operations raids, small troop deployments, or attempts to spark an internal uprising in Iran.

They warn that economic pressure may ultimately shape the war’s trajectory, especially if oil prices keep climbing and trigger inflation, political backlash, or constraints on the U.S. war effort.

Throughout the conversation, Mak and Fox circle back to the same uncomfortable question: what is the actual endgame? Both suggest the war risks drifting into a strategic quagmire without a clear political outcome.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Tim

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