Bulwark's JVL x Tim Mak: Get off the ledge, but maybe enjoy the view a bit

1. Ecological pressures: The current war in Iran is rooted in deeper structural pressures, particularly environmental and economic stress. The ‘black rain’ in Iran threatens to worsen this.
   
   Severe drought has undermined water access, driven inflation, and worsened living conditions, contributing to protests and broader unrest. The recent bombings should be understood as the culmination of long-building pressures inside Iranian society.
   

2. Don’t count on the Iranian regime’s ‘appearance’ of stability: Authoritarian regimes are brittle: they can appear stable until they collapse suddenly. Morale is key: collapse usually comes from internal defections rather than external military pressure.
   
   That said — Iran’s regime, while weakened, still retains powerful coercive institutions with hundreds of thousands of personnel, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Moreover, the regime’s earlier crackdown on protests killed many of the activists who might otherwise have mobilized during the current war, meaning the internal opposition capable of triggering regime collapse has been severely diminished.
   

3. Political limitations on America’s freedom of action: Rising oil prices and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrain American policy and shape how long the conflict can endure.
   
   The war is draining critical Western military stockpiles—particularly air defense interceptors—which has direct implications for other theaters such as Ukraine and potentially Taiwan.
   
   Whether Trump knows it or not, he had the choice to either attack Iran or protect Taiwan — and by choosing one, he’s greatly reduced his freedom to act on the other.
   
   Stay safe out there.

   
   Best,
   Tim