Iran war disrupts supply lines to Ukraine’s battlefield

The blockade of routes from Asia due to the conflict surrounding Iran is making the supply of batteries and drone parts for the Ukrainian army slower and more expensive.

At the bottom of this page: Latest news at this hour.

Iran threatens oil prices could double… regime holding strong… 11 billion U.S. dollars in first six days of war… more than 3 million Iranians displaced… Italian base in Iraq attacked… Switzerland shuts its Tehran embassy… two airports hit in two days… South Korean air defense at use.

OUR LEAD STORY:

On the morning of February 28, millions of people woke up eagerly anticipating the arrival of a long-awaited package from Asia.

Instead of a delivery notification, they received a different message:

“Due to route changes and cargo accumulation at hubs, delivery times between Asia and Europe may increase indefinitely.”

It was such a disappointment, though in the end, it was not a big deal – right?

On the same day, Ukrainian soldiers received a similar message, but they were waiting for batteries, which are crucial to operate on a battlefield.

Logistics companies like UTEC Group, which Andrii Tkachuk owns, now have to deal with growing customer frustration.

The war in the Middle East didn’t surprise him. But though he is used to war conflicts, his familiarity does not make them any less painful.

Andrii Tkachuk, founder and owner of the international logistics company UTEC Group. Photo provided by Andrii.

The war in Iran is already hitting the supply chains that the country depends on every day.

Large container lines are redirecting ships away from the Suez Canal — the main shortcut between Asia and Europe — and sending ships around the southern tip of Africa instead. At the same time, flights carrying cargo between Asia and Europe lost 39 percent of their capacity, and logistics companies were forced to choose alternative routes or cancel deliveries altogether.

Delivery times, shipping costs, and cargo insurance are rising, increasing the cost of products and their parts, especially for military supplies.

Asian countries are traditionally the biggest exporters of batteries, backup power supplies, and electronic components — supplies that Ukraine desperately needs nowadays for communication, repairs, and drone production.

Even though winter is over and the country’s power grid is slowly recovering from blackouts, the needs of the front lines and the military at large remain high, showing how regional destabilization miles away from Ukraine can directly influence its military effect.

Andrii didn’t come to logistics overnight. At first, he worked with various kinds of technology and dealt with cryptographic protection to make the data unreadable to others. Shortly after, he began independently importing various goods from China, like multi-SIM cards, electronics, phones, and accessories.

Over time, friends and partners asked him to help bring goods from China. Andrii realized the need for someone who could organize the entire process, from finding and verifying suppliers to negotiating and delivering goods. He founded his company in 2007.

“Over time, we started transporting everything. We transport explosive goods, batteries, and large items,” Andrii said.

Logistics has long been considered the art of delivering the right goods, in the right condition, to the right place at the right time, at the best price. That’s how the world seemed to work until 2020.

Since then, Andrii has rarely faced easy days.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the sense of stability in this area. According to the World Bank, global trade faced the sharpest decline since World War II.

Andrii’s company needed to adapt quickly. When the world was desperate for masks, protective suits, and other medical supplies, he agreed with airlines that passenger seats in some planes be removed so that as many boxes of masks as possible could be loaded.

At the beginning of the full-scale war, Russia blocked shipping in the Black Sea. Rail routes through Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus were also canceled, cutting off one of the key land routes between Asia and Europe.

As a result, Andrii Tkachuk does not find the new global crisis particularly surprising.

“Something new is constantly happening. Stability in the world and in logistics is becoming increasingly rare,” he told The Counteroffensive.

Asian imports represent a whole range of critically important categories for Ukraine. But key to this is the supply of batteries. On the front line, units are often located in fields with no electricity or communications, making it impossible for them to function without an autonomous power supply.

“We [Ukrainians] are very dependent [on Asia] in many areas. All batteries come from there. Both parts and finished devices come only from China. So this [the war in Iran] will have a big impact,” Andrii said.

In the first few days, seven countries in the region closed or severely restricted their airspace, and more than 6,000 flights were canceled. At the same time, recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rose sharply amid hostilities and threats to shipping. Hundreds of ships were forced to stop, and oil and gas prices rose almost immediately.

Alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope. Photo by operinter.com

For maritime logistics, this also meant a longer route.

“Now all ships are sailing around Africa. This adds 20 to 30 days. And that has a significant impact on costs,” said Andrii.

Andrii’s company had been heavily reliant on Emirates and Qatar, two airlines which had offered an efficient service before the disruption.

The conflict in the region paralyzed Doha and Dubai, which are the hubs for Emirates and Qatar, two key hubs for global cargo transportation, leading to a 22 percent drop in global air cargo capacity and pushing up freight rates, while some carriers began either canceling flights or rerouting them to longer and more expensive routes through Africa.

When those options disappeared, Andrii’s company started looking for alternatives immediately.

Flightradar24 shows changes in airspace over the Middle East due to the US-Israel war on Iran. February 27 vs. March 10. Photo by: Flightradar24

The military will be the first to feel the impact, since they depend on a continuous supply of fuel, equipment repairs, and new components.

“If you can’t deliver some bolts to the factory on time, they simply won’t be able to release the product. And that would be a disaster. So that’s the most dangerous thing,” said Andrii.

Although the Ukrainian front’s dependence on Asia is no longer as absolute, it has not disappeared.

According to data from the Ukrainian defense sector, as of March 2026, Chinese components account for 38 percent of domestic drone parts. Over the course of four years, Ukraine has managed to organize its own production of flight controllers, antennas, and radio modems. This was a direct response to Beijing’s export restrictions in 2023-2024.

However, the front is not yet able to completely break free from Chinese dependence. Lithium-ion batteries and rare-earth magnets for motors are still components that make it impossible to build drones completely China-free at this time.

Another problem is that in wartime, the whole logic of cargo security changes.

“Military risks are mostly not covered in contracts. This means that if something happens to the cargo because of the war, no one will pay compensation,” Andrii says.

Hapag-Lloyd ship. Photo by Hapag-Lloyd.

In addition to higher delivery costs, those who wait for their parcels face uncertainty and limited information about their arrival.

In this situation, Andrii is doing all he can — changing routes, airlines, and launching charter flights. In any of these solutions, the prices are higher than those offered earlier, but this is the best option, since the alternative is waiting for ships that bypass Africa.

“Transparency in logistics is a huge problem right now, and you can know much more about your parcel from Temu or other sites than about cargo worth a couple of million dollars. Sometimes you can ask the carrier where it [your cargo] is, and he will say, ‘I don’t know, I need to find out, I’ll let you know tomorrow,’” Andrii said.

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oleksandra Khelemendyk

IRAN THREATENS OIL PRICES COULD DOUBLE: As oil prices top $100 per barrel, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, said the world has to be prepared for $200.

At least 6 oil tankers have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in the last two days, while Iranian oil is transported there freely. Since the U.S. and Israel’s first strikes on Iran, Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil, getting higher revenue amid the war-induced oil market crisis.

As most Gulf countries affected by the war cut their total oil output by about 10 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency says that the war triggered the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

IRAN REGIME HOLDING STRONG: After almost two weeks of war in the Middle East, the Iranian regime is safe from collapse, U.S. intelligence says. Despite Khamenei’s elimination alongside some of the highest-ranking IRGC commanders, the overall government and institutional structure remains largely intact.

Kurdish militias in Iran, previously consulted by the U.S., are not powerful enough to fight the regime, according to the U.S. intelligence reports. Toppling it might require a U.S. ground offensive, which Trump does not rule out.

ELEVEN BILLION U.S. DOLLARS: That’s an underestimate for how much the Pentagon thinks the first six days of the war in Iran cost the U.S.

Some congressional aides think the White House will soon request more from Congress — $50 billion or more, Reuters reports.

MORE THAN 3 MILLION IRANIANS DISPLACED: According to the UN Refugee Agency, about 3.2 million people have fled Tehran and other major Iranian cities for safer rural areas.

As the war widens, this number is likely to grow, leaving people from other countries who previously found refuge in Iran even more vulnerable.

ITALIAN BASE IN IRAQ ATTACKED: According to Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani, Italy’s military base in the Kurdish region of Iraq was attacked. All the soldiers are safe, but the attackers are still unclear.

Previously, Italy’s Prime Minister ‌Giorgia Meloni condemned the war and provided air-defence systems to Gulf countries. She noted that thousands of Italian citizens and about 2,000 soldiers were stationed in the Middle East.

SWITZERLAND SHUTS ITS TEHRAN EMBASSY: The Swiss foreign ministry, whose embassy has represented U.S. interests since they severed relations with Iran in 1980, decided to temporarily close the embassy of Switzerland in Tehran due to the war.

After the seizure of the American embassy and the following hostage crisis, the “protecting power mandate” has allowed Switzerland to represent U.S. interests in Iran. That agreement remains valid, regardless of the embassy’s location.

TWO AIRPORTS HIT IN TWO DAYS: Earlier today, Kuwait airport was attacked by several drones. Despite damage, no injuries were caused. Yesterday, two drones were intercepted near Dubai airport in the U.A.E., injuring four people.

These attacks both disrupt the transport system and pose a risk to civilian air travel in the Gulf, as countries try to evacuate foreign nationals.

SOUTH KOREAN AIR DEFENSE AT USE: In its first-ever use on the battlefield, two Korean Cheongung-II air defense batteries showed their effectiveness against Iran’s strikes on the U.A.E. Yu Yong-weon, a member of the National Assembly’s national defense committee, says that its interception rate exceeds 90 percent.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq also employ the Cheongung-II. Previously, U.S.-made Patriot systems were also relocated from South Korea to the Middle East.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Oleksandra