Navy commander involved in Strait of Hormuz killed, Israel says; Iran rejects 15-point proposal; Iran drafting bill to impose fees for safe passage through Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, Iran is threatening another key shipping passage, this one between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and suspicious oil trades hit just minutes before Trump’s announcement of peace talks.
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NAVY COMMANDER INVOLVED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ KILLED, ISRAEL SAYS: Defense Minister Katz confirmed an airstrike that killed Alireza Tangsiri — the IRGC Navy commander directly responsible for the mining and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not yet confirmed the death.
Israel is systematically dismantling the IRGC’s command structure, but oil prices rose rather than fell following the news, perhaps suggesting that markets do not believe the death of a single commander will reopen the strait.
IRAN REJECTS 15-POINT PROPOSAL: Tehran officially rejected the American peace plan but acknowledged for the first time that messages were being exchanged through intermediaries, reports NPR. Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Washington’s willingness to talk is an admission of failure, following the U.S. demand for unconditional surrender.
This is the first time both sides have publicly confirmed any contact.
IRAN DRAFTING BILL TO IMPOSE FEES FOR SAFE PASSAGE THROUGH HORMUZ: Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to charge vessels for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported, citing the semi-official Fars news agency. The law, expected to pass next week, would formally assert Iran’s control over the vital shipping route. According to various reports, Iran has previously asked some vessels for payments of up to $2 million as a toll for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
… WHILE THREATENING TO BLOCK ANOTHER KEY PASSAGE: An Iranian military source from the IRGC has warned that if the U.S. attempts to conduct ground operations or exert pressure with naval forces in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, Iran will threaten another key passage beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Bab el-Mandeb.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — about 12% of global maritime oil trade and a significant portion of LNG pass through it. It sits between Yemen and Djibouti. If Iran blocks both straits simultaneously, there is virtually no alternative — unlike the Strait of Hormuz, where there are partial pipeline bypasses capable of handling 4.7 million barrels per day, there is no comparable land route for the Red Sea.
SUSPICIOUS OIL TRADES HIT MINUTES BEFORE TRUMP ANNOUNCEMENT: Fifteen minutes before Trump tweeted about productive talks, someone bought millions of dollars’ worth of short positions, and then the market took off. About 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold over the course of two minutes in New York right before Trump’s announcement, according to Bloomberg.
This raises concerns about who has access to insider information on the war.
EPA ALLOWS HIGHER-ETHANOL GAS SALES TO EASE FUEL PRICES: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it will allow gas stations to keep selling E15 gasoline — a cheaper fuel blend with more ethanol — through the summer, hoping to lower pump prices as energy costs rise.
E15 is usually restricted in warmer months because it can worsen air pollution, but the waiver has become common in recent years when fuel prices spike. Experts aren’t convinced this will have a massive effect on easing oil prices because it is not available across the entire country and some vehicles can’t safely use it.
Stay safe out there!
Best,
Oleksandra
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