U.S. “fully implemented” blockade could stop Iran’s oil production.… Israel and Lebanon negotiate in the U.S.… Iran demands compensation for war damage.… Next round of peace talks looming… U.S. sends more troops to the Middle East.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

TAIPEI, Taiwan – Walking through a night market in Taiwan is a wonderfully overwhelming experience. The packed crowd, surrounded by various food options, is full of people having a hard time deciding what to eat.

There’s baked pepper buns, stinky tofu, fried yam balls, and oyster pancakes.

And of course, after tasting it all, no one walks home without a bubble tea.

The place where ordinary Taiwanese people go for a bite has become an iconic signature for the country, attracting tourists from all over the world.

But it could all disappear if the Iran war lasts much longer.

Taiwan is one of many countries that have suffered from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran on February 28.

The plastic that defines Taiwan’s night markets, from food packaging to utensils and even in the lids of the bubble tea cups, is made using crude oil from the Middle East.

Taiwan imports 65% of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq, according to a report from the Executive Yuan, the highest administration office in the Taiwan central government. Taiwan, its food scene, and its culture are left exposed to a war thousands of miles away.

A-Chan wakes up at 6 o’clock every morning to prepare food for the day: noodles (mee sua in Taiwanese), chicken fillet, and his signature dish, stinky tofu. His shop, A-Chan Mee Sua, is in the most popular market area that runs from day to night, near Taipei Main Station. He has been running the business for more than 30 years since he took over from his parents.

He sells an array of food that can be found in the night market, most of which gets wrapped in plastic before purchase.

The last thing A-Chan wants is to fail the business that belongs to his family heritage. He keeps the shop open every day except on official holidays such as the Lunar New Year, and makes sure that every customer enjoys every bite.

Now, the shortage of plastic bags is making A-Chan anxious. “Damn Trump! Stop the war!” he said.

To counter the plastic shortage, some vendors are recommending that customers bring their own plastic bags. Some charge the customers extra fees for bags. As the war in Iran drags on, the plastic shortage crisis has only continued to worsen.

Taiwanese media started showing plastic distributors complaining about the limited production, panicking the consumers. The plastic bags became rare and harder to find in the market, suggesting that either the distributors or the consumers are stockpiling, causing prices to skyrocket and forcing the Taiwanese government to announce a supply-distribution stability plan.

For heated food vendors, the issue is even worse — some plastic bags are made specially to endure the hot temperatures. “The price of those almost doubled,” A-Chan said.

But to A-Chan, the high cost of the bags isn’t the real problem. “It’s still affordable, but the issue is we can’t buy them, even if we pay more,” he said.

The Counteroffensive tried to find out if any distributors were stockpiling, and after visiting at least four distributors, only one was willing to comment.

“Please stop reporting on the shortage. People kept coming to panic buy.” The owner of the Hua-Yuan Trading House said.

A panic buy — which refers to sudden and excessive purchase of daily groceries, such as food, and fuel — has happened multiple times in Taiwan, especially when a typhoon or earthquake hits badly.

A-Chan’s mother, Mrs. Tseng, trusts her supplier. “They don’t stockpile. They need to maintain a good relationship with clients. If they hid bags from us, they would lose business soon.”

When asked what they plan to do with their business if the war lasts long term, Mrs. Tseng said with faith, “the war won’t end immediately, but it won’t last longer than six months. It will cost [the Americans] too much!”

The night market vendors and their supply chains are mostly small businesses. The floating cost of plastic could easily take over their profit, and that’s not the only concern.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas, or LPG, is one of the most important tools for the hot food vendors. 33.7% of Taiwan’s LPG is imported from Qatar, according to the data from the Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs, which makes Qatar its biggest supplier.

In order to control inflation, the Taiwanese government held up the price of LPG for household use toward the end of March. But the night market vendors aren’t as lucky.

Moreover, the rise in the price of vegetable oil could cause more damage to the food vendors. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says that vegetable oil ​prices have increased 5.1% since last September.

All these factors can make it harder for night market vendors to make ends meet. Chris, the vendor who sells fried yam balls in a southern city of Taiwan, Tainan, is feeling the pain.

“I just started my business at the end of last year.” He can’t believe his luck: “In four months, I saw the Black Swan,” referring to the extremely rare wartime events unfolding that are impacting his business.

Most of these vendors are paying the rising cost out of pocket. It can take out hundreds of dollars from their profit per month.

To keep the night market lively during hard times, the Taiwanese government is trying to hold down oil prices for as long as it can. CPC Corporation, Taiwan, owned by the government, has paid 103.7 million dollars (3.3 billion NTD) for the extra cost of gas in the past two weeks, without sharing the burden with users.

Everyone tries to do their best to survive until the Strait of Hormuz opens. The plastic bag issue is probably easier to solve first. The Taipei city council started to promote using reusable bags or having the customers bring their own containers.

Before the plastic shortage crisis, some Taiwanese people were considering how to make bubble tea less carbon-intensive. They bring their own cups, reusable straws, and replace the plastic carrier bag with a cloth bag.

Some conservation groups even see this moment as an opportunity to change the night market into a more eco-friendly and sustainable place.

The lack of diverse energy sources during the Iran war has brought back the discussion about using nuclear energy after the referendum to restart the nuclear power plant in Taiwan failed last August.

Just two weeks ago, President William Lai made a speech revealing his nuclear energy strategy. “We don’t know how long the war will last, but Taiwan needs to be prepared for the worst.”

The Iran war has affected Taiwan slowly, but surely. This squeeze means that a cultural staple — the nightmarket — is dying slowly, too.

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

U.S. ‘FULLY IMPLEMENTED’ BLOCKADE COULD STOP IRAN’S OIL PRODUCTION: The head of U.S. Central Command said that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. which is targeting vessels exiting and entering Iranian ports, has now been ‘fully implemented.’. In the first 24 hours of the U.S. blockade, American warships turned around six vessels after issuing them warnings, U.S. officials said.

Central command also said that within a day and a half it has put a stop to ‘90%’ of Tehran’s economic activity.

The Financial Times has reported that if the U.S. does cut off Iran’s exports, the country will be forced to drastically downsize its oil production. Iran’s storage facilities, which are used to store crude oil. are currently about 51% full and will fill up within 16 days if oil production continues at its current rate.

ISRAEL AND LEBANON NEGOTIATE IN THE U.S.: On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington. The two countries have technically been in a state of war since 1948, and this two-hour-long meeting was their first attempt to negotiate directly in decades.

Lebanese ambassador Nada Moawad called for a ceasefire, as her country was excluded from the most recent peace negotiations in Islamabad. She raised the issue of returning displaced Lebanese citizens to their homes and steps to alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by the war.

Beirut made it clear that it would no longer ​be “occupied” by Hezbollah, according to Yechiel Leiter, Israeli ambassador to the United States. Israel, however, did not specify if it will stop its attacks on Lebanon.

The sides had not agreed on any clear peace framework yet. Hours after the talks, Hezbollah launched 30 missiles at Israel.

IRAN DEMANDS COMPENSATION FOR WAR DAMAGE: Iran’s envoy to the UN said that five countries — all of which have allegedly launched attacks toward Iran — have to compensate for the critical infrastructure damaged in war, according to Al Jazeera.

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani estimated the damage at about $270 billion in an interview with Russian journalists. These costs might be partly collected from fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The topic of reparations was raised during the first round of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and will likely be discussed in any further negotiations.

NEXT ROUND OF PEACE TALKS LOOMING: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif plans to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey this week. These visits might be a preparation for the next round of peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Donald Trump also hinted that “something might be happening” in his Tuesday interview with The New York Post.

U.S. SENDS MORE TROOPS TO MIDDLE EAST: The U.S. is preparing to send 6,000 more troops to the region aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several more warships, anonymous U.S. officials told The Washington Post.

About 4,200 others will arrive by the end of the month. Together with American forces already based in the Middle East, they will cause more pressure on Iran, attempting to compel it to negotiate on U.S. terms.

EUROPE PLANS TO FREE UP HORMUZ STRAIT WITHOUT U.S.: European countries are drafting a plan to free up shipping in the Strait of Hormuz which excludes the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported. The plan includes sending mine-clearing and other military vessels after the fighting ends.

The main participants of this defensive mission are France, Germany and the U. K. This Friday, Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host an online meeting with several dozen countries willing to join. According to an anonymous French official, even China and India were also invited, but it’s unclear if they will attend. The U.S. is most likely to be sidelined.

RUSSIA OFFERS IRAN HELP WITH ENRICHED URANIUM: Russia could help Iran convert its enriched uranium stockpiles into fuel or store it safely, Russian state news agency TASS reported, citing Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Iran’s highly-enriched uranium stockpile is one of the key issues causing a stall in the peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Iran is willing to pause its enrichment program, but the U.S. demands its complete termination.

This comes as Russia is trying to bolster its role in Asia and offer cheaper energy to China and other countries that face supply shortages.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Elaine

Iran-linked tankers transit Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. blockade… Saudi Arabia pushes to end U.S. blockade of Strait of Hormuz… Lebanon-Israel talks are starting in Washington, D.C., today… U.S. and Iran could renew peace talks in Pakistan this week… Pope pushes back against Trump attack.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

YEREVAN, Armenia – When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the war, it stranded roughly 20,000 seafarers aboard more than 2,000 vessels, many of whom had already been at sea for months.

“Despite the announcement of the ceasefire, the requests haven’t stopped,” said Mohamed Arrachedi, who works for the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF). He is one of the few lifelines sailors have in the Persian Gulf.

The ITF is a federation of trade unions, protecting the labor rights of transport workers, including seafarers. Since the start of the war in Iran, the distress calls Mohamed has received are unlike anything he has seen in his 28 years on the job.

Just a week ago, it looked like the Strait of Hormuz might reopen following the U.S.–Iran peace talks, giving hope to seafarers stranded in the Gulf. Many of them are exposed not only to the mental strain of being stuck at sea, but also to the threat of Iran’s attacks on oil tankers.

But on Monday, the situation took a turn for the worse: the U.S. escalated the crisis by launching a naval blockade, stationing over 15 warships to intercept vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports. Ships that don’t comply could risk being seized by U.S. forces.

The move has made passage through the strait more uncertain than ever, with major shipowners and brokers now refusing to transit without security guarantees from both Iran and the U.S.

As ships remain stuck, conditions on board are only getting worse—leaving Mohamed to witness the human cost of a crisis unfolding along one of the world’s most critical shipping routes.

Mohamed, 56, grew up in Al Hoceima, a beachy port city in northern Morocco sitting between the Alboran Sea and the Rif Mountains. Mohamed’s childhood memories are those of long summers spent playing at the port, watching the fishermen haul in their catch and prepare them by the shore.

But there was also a much darker side to life near the sea. “I had friends that lost their father or one of their family members at sea…you are aware of the suffering…that the ones going to sea are more exposed, are more vulnerable,” said Mohamed.

His work for the ITF involves receiving calls from seamen in distress and advocating for their labor rights, putting pressure on employers and oversight bodies to act. The complaints Mohamed gets span the gamut: unpaid wages, sailors being forced to sail despite unsafe conditions, requests for repatriation, and other violations of the Maritime Labour Convention.

By the time a sailor reaches out, Mohamed knows the situation is already desperate. “Often only a few seafarers have access to the internet, the fact that they get in touch…is something in itself. It is not normalized to reach out to [the ITF] because the seafarer will be blamed and threatened,” Mohamed explained.

Many workers won’t contact Mohamed even in the most desperate situations, because they have a fear of being “blacklisted.” Some shipping companies identify employees reaching out to trade unions and prevent them from being hired again.

During the Iran war, things have gotten drastically worse for the people who rely on Mohamed’s support.

“The way they are approaching us is not normal…you feel a lot of stress…a lot of desperation. They call you at 2 or 3 o’clock in the morning when they have a connection,” Mohamed explained. Since the war in Iran started, Mohamed has received a call from a seaman who reported that their vessel had been hit off the coast of Iraq, killing one of their crewmen.

In the last month and a half, at least 22 vessels have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, killing at least 10 seafarers in total. But why these vessels were targeted in particular is unclear, sparking panic among the sailors who are still stuck in the gulf.

Even just seeing the attacks takes a toll on the seamen, a few of whom have reached out to the ITF. “We don’t want to stay here, we don’t want to die here, please help us,” Mohamed said, quoting some of the reports he has received.

Currently, Mohamed is dealing with around 100-200 cases, many of whom are reporting that they want to be repatriated — a situation which is increasingly difficult given the blockade of the strait.

After receiving a repatriation request, Mohamed reaches out to the shipowners or the management of the vessel and presses them to send the crews back home. But the companies don’t always respond meaning Mohamed has to escalate the issue to the vessel’s flag state.

Some sailors have personal reasons for needing to go home — one man told Mohamed that he was willing to forfeit his unpaid wages if he could return to his home country, as his mother was sick and he wanted to see her before she passed away.

The shipping industry can be very exploitative because seafarers both live and work on the ships and, isolated from the world around them, their labour rights can be easily violated and the violations are much harder to track.

One seafarer contacted Mohamed saying that he had not been paid for the last 16 months. Another said that with his wages being withheld, his family was unable to pay their mortgage and was evicted from their home. For Mohamed, these are some of the most distressing calls.

Since passage through the strait has been restricted, the price of oil has surged, and only increased after Trump said he would blockade the waterway starting April 13. But the financial burden is felt by the companies that own these ships, too.

“The vessel…can create a lot of wealth when it’s working, but when the ship is not moving…it’s the opposite; it only generates costs the seafarer needs to pay and the vessel needs to be maintained,” Mohamed explained.

And now that vessels trapped by the closing of the strait are unable to make money, more sailors are reporting unpaid wages, Mohamed explained.

A month and a half into the war, Mohamed is noticing new trends in the distress calls he is receiving. Sailors are reporting a lack of food and water, which was not the case at the start of the war. Other reports have found sailors fishing off of their tankers, while Chinese seafarers have taken videos of their crew collecting condensation from their air conditioning units to harvest water.

While signs of the Strait of Hormuz opening are less than promising, the countries around Persian Gulf held a meeting at the end of March to find a way to facilitate repatriation and assist seafarers with medical issues and resupply provisions.

For Mohamed, the war has exposed systemic failures in the shipping industry: “The system is clearly failing…and protection of seafarers is possible. It’s not a myth. It’s really possible.”

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Anastasiia Lutsenko

IRAN-LINKED TANKERS TRANSIT HORMUZ STRAIT DESPITE U.S. BLOCKADE: On the first full day of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is aimed at targeting vessels calling at Iranian ports, at least four Iran-linked tankers, two of which were visiting Iranian ports, passed through the strait, according to the BBC.

The blockade was announced after the ceasefire failed to enable ships to transit through the strait.

SAUDI ARABIA PUSHES TO END U.S. BLOCKADE OF STRAIT: Saudi Arabia has called on the U.S. to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz fearing that Iran could retaliate by closing the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, another crucial shipping route chokepoint, located between Yemen and Djibouti.

Several other countries have criticised the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Spain’s defense minister called it “senseless” and China criticized the move as “dangerous and irresponsible,” warning it could escalate tensions.

LEBANON-ISRAEL TALKS IN WASHINGTON TODAY: Lebanon and Israel are set to hold their first direct talks since 1993 in Washington, D.C., this Tuesday. The ambassadors of Lebanon and Israel, along with Marco Rubio, are expected to take part in the U.S.-brokered talks, where Lebanese officials aim to secure a ceasefire, while Israel is pushing for the disarmament of Hezbollah, Al Jazeera reported.

Hezbollah has already stated it will not be bound by any agreements in the upcoming talks , according to APnews. A senior official said the group rejects the negotiations and any outcomes, including a possible ceasefire.

U.S. AND IRAN COULD RENEW PEACE TALKS IN PAKISTAN THIS WEEK: Negotiating teams from the US and Iran may return to Islamabad later this week or early next, to resume talks aimed at ending the conflict in the Gulf, Reuters reported. Trump also said that when the U.S. began its naval blockade, Iran reached out to Washington, seeking renewed peace negotiations. Mediators in Pakistan say communication between both sides is ongoing and a new meeting could take place over the weekend.

In response to the possibility of renewed talks, Tehran is considering halting shipments through the Hormuz strait to avoid provoking a reaction from the U.S. blockade and impacting a renewed round of peace talks, Bloomberg reported citing a source familiar with the matter.

POPE PUSHES BACK AGAINST TRUMP ATTACK: Donald Trump criticized Pope Leo XIV who condemned the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran, calling him “weak on crime” and accusing him of mixing politics with religion. Earlier, the Pope denounced threats and military escalation against Iran as “unacceptable.”

In response, Pope Leo XIV said he has “no fear” of Trump’s administration and will continue advocating for peace and against violence. “We are not politicians, and we don’t approach foreign policy from the same perspective he might understand,” he continued. “But I do believe in the message of the Gospel as a call to be peacemakers.”

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Alessandra

OUR LEAD STORY:

There are signs that President Donald Trump was or is considering capturing the oil terminals on an island critical to Iran’s energy infrastructure.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t,” Trump told The Financial Times. “We have a lot of options.”

Either operation may require an amphibious landing by U.S. Marines or other military service members.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the Pentagon is massing thousands in the Persian Gulf aboard six assault ships organized in two amphibious ready groups.

The Scenario:

Any amphibious operation would be extremely risky as lumbering and lightly armed ships disgorge slow, vulnerable landing craft packed with Marines and their equipment—and the landing craft slowly motor toward potentially heavily defended beaches, possibly while under attack from below, on and above the waves.

Drones can help build up combat power while reducing risk for those executing the operation.

Even successful U.S. amphibious landings during World War II, the last conflict where they were common, usually left thousands of Americans dead or wounded.

An array of defense companies are working hard to make amphibious ops less risky for the landing force, by replacing some of the people with autonomous or remotely-controlled machines. Some of the systems are already in use in the U.S. Marine Corps. Some are coming soon. All represent an effort to staunch the bloodletting traditionally associated with beach landings under fire.

After the paywall:
—Learn about low-profile vessels, seabed ground drones and drone interceptors the Marine Corps is thinking about procuring or is already procuring.
—How can drone technology help save the lives of American military service members?
—What are the considerations of an amphibious landing, one of the most dangerous military operations in existence?

Read more

Editor’s note:

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The latest news at this hour:

U.S.-IRAN PEACE TALKS FAIL: The U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement after the peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. J.D. Vance said that Iran wouldn’t give up its nuclear program and declined the “final and best offer” from the U.S.

The leader of Iran’s negotiation delegation and the speaker of Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the U.S. negotiators failed to win his team’s trust by declining Iran’s proposals and said U.S. demands prevented any conclusion from the peace talks.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said that no one had expected to end the war in a single round of negotiations and mentioned “two, or three key issues” that stalled the process. Still, he pointed out that diplomatic efforts will continue in coordination with Pakistan and other countries in the Middle East.

Neither side indicated what would happen after the two-week ceasefire ends. Meanwhile, Pakistan has urged both to continue the ceasefire, adding that it will try to bring the new sides together for renewed dialogue.

TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL BLOCKADE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: In a Truth Social post on April 12, Trump wrote that the U.S. Navy will begin the process of “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” The post came the morning after failed peace talks in Islamabad. He also said there could be mines in the Strait, which the U.S. will begin to destroy.

Two U.S. ships, Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy, began clearing those mines on April 11, according to CENTCOM, and promised that more U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance operation in the coming days.

The U.S. did not coordinate with Iran, as it sent its warships across the strait for the first time since the start of the war. The move aimed to increase confidence in commercial vessels seeking to cross the strait.

The clearance operation might face technical difficulties, as Iran cannot locate all the mines it laid, and the U.S. is uncertain how many of them were planted in the Strait of Hormuz, The New York Times reported.

…WHILE TANKERS IN HORMUZ MAKE LAST-MINUTE U-TURN: Two tankers set out on Saturday to make their way out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz but on Sunday reversed their course after ceasefire talks broke down, Bloomberg reported.

DEATH TOLLS IN IRAN, LEBANON REACH THOUSANDS: Lebanon, excluded from the ceasefire and peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, continues to face Israeli attacks. In total, more than 2,000 people were killed and at least 6,300 wounded in Lebanon following the latest Israel attacks, according to yesterday’s health ministry report.

The Guardian published a video of mass detonations in the villages of Taybeh, Naqoura, and Deir Seryan along the Israel-Lebanon border and reported that Israel has demolished entire villages in Lebanon. In Israel, at least 20 people were killed in retaliation strikes on the country as of Monday, April 6.

Meanwhile, Iran says at least 3,300 people have been killed since strikes by the United States and Israel began, reported BBC.

The latest update from Iran puts the number of identified bodies at 3,375, including 2,875 men and 496 women. The highest number of casualties has been recorded in Tehran, Hormozgan, and Isfahan provinces. The report presents a significant number of child casualties. Seven of those killed were infants under one year old, 255 were between the ages of one and 12, and 121 were teenagers aged 13 to 18.

Aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area in the southern Lebanese village of Nabatieh al Faouka, on April 12, 2026. (Photo by Abbas FAKIH / AFP via Getty Images)

IRAN’S INTERNET SHUTDOWN BREAKS GLOBAL RECORD: The internet monitoring group NetBlocks says that the internet in Iran has been completely shut down for 44 days, or 7 weeks now, now breaking global records.

SAUDI ARABIA RESTORES EAST-WEST PIPELINE CAPACITY: Saudi Arabia says it has fully restored oil-pumping capacity through its East-West pipeline to around seven million barrels per day, days after assessing damage caused by attacks during the Iran war.

The energy ministry said facilities and infrastructure affected by the strikes have now recovered, with the pipeline and related sites back to full operational capacity.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Oleksandra

All of this is unfolding as the two-week ceasefire that gave way to these negotiations is precarious. Israel and Hezbollah are still trading…

Read more

Lebanon faces a food crisis amid the Iran war.… Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to talks with Lebanon after U.S. pressure.… British public turns against the U.S. after the Iran war.… Donald Trump criticises Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz.… Trump’s war with Iran tripled US inflation last month.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

YEREVAN, Armenia – The cheers, celebrations, and music playing from balconies and streets as citizens celebrated the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were quickly replaced by a wave of panic as people rushed to stores to stock up on food and essentials. Others clustered at gas stations, eager to purchase what fuel they could before prices skyrocketed.

Soon enough, however, Iranian regime forces put a stop to this: dozens of Revolutionary Guards members drove through downtown Isfahan, brandishing assault rifles and shotguns in a clear display that they were still in control, despite the sounds of enemy aircraft overhead.

But while wartime life would soon settle into a sort of rhythm, the twin dangers that Mehrdad and his fellow civilians would find themselves increasingly caught between had already been established: a growing airstrike campaign from above, and the regime’s brutal Basij paramilitaries on the ground.

The two have become increasingly intertwined. On April 7, the regime has called upon young people to form human shields around critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Basij have tried to do the same, drawing civilians to their checkpoints by distributing food in an effort to protect themselves from airstrikes.

The Iranian government has found itself facing a growing inability to protect critical infrastructure, including its security forces, from US and Israeli airstrikes. Iran’s meager air defences, already battered during the 12-day war last year, have been rendered nearly completely ineffective. This has led the government to attempt more cynical measures, hoping for the unwillingness of their enemy to inflict mass civilian casualties to dissuade attacks.

The Basij, having killed thousands of Iranian civilians themselves just months ago, are happy to oblige — further proof that when President Donald Trump claims that regime change in Iran has already been achieved, that is far from the reality.

“In the weeks after that first day, life returned somewhat to normal,” said Mehrdad. A 34-year old native of Isfahan, Iran’s second-largest city and historic capital, where he works as a researcher. “People mostly went back to work, although many government-related jobs remained closed. There were fewer airstrikes here than in Tehran in the early weeks, so more businesses remained open,” he said.

Due to severe internet blackouts, the reality on the ground for average Iranians has become almost impossible to ascertain, including related to basic difficulties like inflation - particularly with regards to food.

“Food prices have been rising for years in Iran, always getting worse,” Mehrdad said. “However, in the past few months, inflation - especially for food - has been particularly severe. Prices of items like dairy products and some fruits, like bananas, have more than doubled, and that’s just the start,” he said.

A massive jump in food prices — a 72% increase from the previous year — was one of the catalysts of the January protests.

Food has still been more accessible than another basic necessity: fuel.

“Fuel has been strictly limited since the war began,” Mehrdad said. “Each car can only get about 20 liters a day, and it requires lining up at gas stations, which makes people feel vulnerable. Most airstrikes haven’t targeted small civilian buildings like this yet, but they are getting closer all the time.”

For most of the war, Isfahan had been relatively quieter than Tehran or Iran’s coastal cities, which possess most of the country’s critical government and energy structures. That has been changing since late March, Mehrdad said.

“For the past week and a half, I’ve been hearing fighter jets almost every night, flying constantly overhead until dawn,” he said. “There have been very intense attacks nearby, with loud explosions shaking the windows. Some of my family members have been terrified, and it’s been up to me to try and calm them down,” Mehrdad said.

In the meantime, the Iranian regime has stepped up its own shows of power, reminding locals that the Islamic Republic - and the Revolutionary Guards - have not gone anywhere.

“Security forces - Basij members and IRGC - and their families sometimes go out at night in cars, waving regime or Hezbollah flags,” Mehrdad said. “There are also trucks with large speakers playing slogans like ‘Death to the U.S.’ and ‘Death to Israel.’ They want people to notice them,” he said.

Mehrdad said he has seen a number of these checkpoints spring up in his neighbourhood in Isfahan’s suburbs, part of a growing trend of the group’s increasing usage of civilian infrastructure.

“The Basij often set up these food distribution checkpoints, in many different areas,” he said. “They will place them at busy intersections, where a lot of cars and foot traffic are passing by. I’ve also seen Basij gatherings at hospitals and schools, possibly to try and avoid being targeted,” Mehrdad said.

The Basij militias are one of the Islamic Republic’s most feared and effective means of control. Its fighters were deeply involved in the brutal suppression of protests in January, using wanton violence to massacre and disperse demonstrators. The group often recruits child soldiers, launching a campaign to recruit volunteer fighters ‘age 12 and over’ in late March.

Their status as a key pillar of the regime’s control has made the Basij an increasingly common target for Israeli airstrikes, as Tel Aviv pursues its policy of toppling the Iranian regime. By mid-March, Israeli aircraft had begun regularly striking Basij checkpoints in Tehran in particular, aiming to reduce the Islamic Republic’s control on the ground. This campaign has since spread to Basij targets in other cities, including Isfahan.

Mehrdad said that the Basij are aware that their checkpoints are likely to attract enemy attention. The group has adapted by both reducing their size, dispersing them to smaller outposts across the city, and by regularly moving them.

“They usually set up something like a small temporary booth or station, often in busy areas where a lot of people pass by, like intersections or main streets,” Mehrdad said.

“They play loud, dramatic music with messages like ‘no compromise with the U.S.’ or about destroying the U.S. and Israel. They hand out things like tea and cakes to people in cars or to pedestrians,” trying to draw their attention and bring them closer, he said.

Most people attempt to avoid the checkpoints, either by taking a different route from a known Basij location or quickly moving past the paramilitaries, Mehrdad said. There is no love lost for the regime in Isfahan.

“Most people have mixed emotions right now,” he said. “It’s a war, so there is fear, but at the same time, there is hope that the regime might fall. I believe this hope is the only thing that could truly make many Iranians happy,” Mehrdad said.

The temporary ceasefire announced by the U.S. on April 8 could provide a reprieve. While food prices have been rising, most locals have so far been able to make do without resorting to the aid handed out by the regime. If inflation continues and shortages grow, however, they could have no choice.

“So far, what we’re seeing still feels like the usual pattern in Iran, since only about a month has passed since the start of the war,” Mehrdad said. “But I believe much higher inflation is coming, especially if imports are completely blocked and stores begin to run out of goods in the coming weeks.”

The Iranian regime, and its Basij enforcers, already hold most of the cards in their standoff with Iran’s restive populace. Adding control of the food supply among an increasingly beleaguered civilian population would increase that power further.

*Mehrdad’s name has been changed to protect his identity.

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By: Anastasiia Lutsenko

LEBANON FACES FOOD CRISIS AMID IRAN WAR: The World Food Programme warns that Lebanon is facing a serious food crisis due to the war involving Iran, according to Reuters. Prices are rising fast, with vegetables up over 20% and bread up 17%, while many families struggle to afford basic food.

Attacks and displacement are making the situation worse, especially in southern Lebanon where most markets are no longer operating. Around 900,000 people now face food insecurity, and delivering aid is becoming more difficult as the conflict continues.

NETANYAHU AGREES TO TALKS WITH LEBANON AFTER US PRESSURE: Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will start direct negotiations with Lebanon soon after pressure from Donald Trump and US officials, according to Axios. However, Israel says it will continue military actions and not agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon.

The talks aim to reduce tensions and possibly disarm Hezbollah, but disagreements remain. Iran claims Lebanon was part of a ceasefire deal, while the US and Israel deny this. The first meeting is expected to take place in Washington next week.

BRITISH TURN AGAINST THE US AFTER IRAN WAR: People in the UK now see the United States as more negative than positive after Donald Trump’s war in Iran, according to Public First LDC. A new poll shows 53% think the US is a negative force, while only 29% see it as positive.

Most of the British public does not support military action in Iran and say the UK should not join, even if the US asks. However, support grows if the UK is directly attacked or if important oil routes are threatened.

Many people want the government to focus on national interests and work more closely with European countries instead of the US, while concern about global instability continues to rise.

TRUMP CRITICISES IRAN OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTROL: Donald Trump says Iran is doing a “very poor job” managing the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil passes, and warns against charging fees to tankers, according to BBC.

At the same time, fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon despite a ceasefire, as peace talks in Pakistan are expected with JD Vance and Iranian officials.

TRUMP’S WAR WITH IRAN TRIPLED US INFLATION LAST MONTH: US inflation tripled in March amid the conflict with Iran, which drove a sharp rise in energy prices, according to CNN. The annual inflation rate rose to 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The spike was mainly caused by surging energy costs, with gasoline prices jumping a record 21.1% due to disruptions in global oil supply linked to Iran.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Neil

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IRAN SAYS ISRAELI STRIKES ON LEBANON RENDER PEACE TALKS MEANINGLESS: Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday that Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon violate the ceasefire and could make negotiations meaningless, adding that Iran would not abandon the Lebanese people. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned Thursday that if Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon continued they would result in “explicit costs and STRONG responses.” Israel has announced evacuation orders for Beirut suburbs threatening more strikes on the area.

The escalation continues despite a disputed U.S.–Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, in which the latter said that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu said the deal does not apply to Lebanon, and Donald Trump stated the country is excluded due to Hezbollah.

…HEAVIEST STRIKES KILL OVER 250 IN LEBANON: Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon killed at least 254 people and injured hundreds in the largest attack on Lebanon so far according to CBC.

…WHILE EUROPE CONDEMNS THE ATTACKS: Spain criticized Israel for violating the ceasefire with airstrikes on Lebanon and will reopen its embassy in Tehran to support regional peace efforts, according to Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the truce as “very good news” and said it appears to be holding, while warning that Lebanon’s situation remains critical and must be included in any wider agreement, while praising Iran’s readiness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Italy’s Prime Minister said the country had repeatedly asked Israel to halt the military escalation in Lebanon after Israeli troops shot at an Italian UN convoy. Following the incident, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador.

U.S. WILL KEEP TROOPS IN PLACE UNTIL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT IS CLEAR: Donald Trump warned late Wednesday that American troops, aircraft, and naval forces will remain deployed around Iran until the agreement is fully in place and threatened “destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy” if Tehran fails to meet Washington’s demands.

CONFUSION OVER HORMUZ STRAIT OPENING: The Hormuz Strait has not been opened as was promised by Iran’s government on Tuesday as part of the ceasefire. Only four vessels with their trackers on have passed through the strait, according to marine tracking data analyzed by the AP. Yesterday Tehran said that if countries coordinated with Iran’s military they could negotiate safe passage, but if vessels tried to pass without permission, they would be fired upon. Vessels that attempted to pass were stopped after they were told that Israel breached the ceasefire agreement, Euronews reported citing Iran’s Fars news outlet.

The United Arab Emirates’ Minister of Industry Sultan Al Jaber and CEO of state-run oil giant ADNOC wrote that access to the Strait of Hormuz is “being restricted…and controlled” despite the ceasefire deal.

TRUMP ADMIN EXPECTED TO EXTEND RUSSIAN OIL SANCTIONS WAIVERS: The Trump administration is likely to continue waiving sanctions on Russian oil this week, setting the stage for a similar move on Iranian oil, according to Semafor. The U.S. first lifted sanctions on Russian oil on March 13 to ease its skyrocketing oil prices, which were caused by the war and the closed Strait of Hormuz. Experts say the waivers have done little to lower prices but serve as a market leverage tool. Critics warn the policy risks creating a precedent where sanctioned countries can pressure the US to ease restrictions.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Anastasiia

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Iran is saying that three clauses of the 10-point peace proposal have already been violated by continued fighting in Lebanon, a drone in Iranian airspace, and denial of Iran’s right to enrichment.

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Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of peace talks.…Hegseth says the U.S. could still take Iran’s uranium…Iran continues attacks on Gulf States…Both the US and Iran claim victory after the ceasefire deal…Lebanon is excluded from the ceasefire.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

Arash* found out about the ceasefire while he was driving to Armenia from Iran to join his family — they drove north to Armenia just days before the war started. “The U.S. was building up its military forces in the region; we knew what was coming. So my wife and children left,” Arash explained.

Arash had promised his family that he would join them in Armenia but remained in Iran until Trump threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if Iran did not open the Hormuz Strait. Many experts deemed this a threat to commit war crimes.

Arash knew that if the U.S. started bombing the railways and roads, it could become very difficult to leave.

“I heard about the ceasefire while I was on the road [to Armenia]. I was happy when I heard about it…I think it’s wrong that Trump was planning to bomb civilian infrastructure. It has nothing to do with him,” he explained.

Today, people living in Iran and neighboring countries have been left reeling by recent peace talk developments between Iran and the U.S.

Yesterday, just hours before Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that Iran’s “civilization will die tonight.” Then, just over an hour before the clock struck 8 p.m. EST, he announced a two-week ceasefire.

Trump said he had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, one of the points calling for an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, which he described as a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

But the first day of the ceasefire has already proven shaky: Israel is hitting Lebanon with the heaviest strikes of the war thus far, Iranians are fleeing across the border with little faith in the ceasefire, and many Israelis spent the morning in a bomb shelter. Bahrain, the UAE and Kuwait all reported fresh strikes from Iran this morning.

Iran War Dispatches spoke to people across the region about how they are experiencing the first 24 hours of the ceasefire.

Danial*, 23, arrived in Armenia from Iran just as the ceasefire was being announced. “As soon as I crossed the border and turned on my phone, I found out that there was a ceasefire,” Danial explained, chuckling at the irony.

He said that he is happy that the ceasefire means his family will be safer, but he also doubts that it will hold. “I don’t think this ceasefire will last…[Trump] has a 50 billion dollar budget for war…he can’t just tell [the military] to go home,” Danial explained.

About 20 days ago, he decided to try to make life work in Armenia. Although he is only 23, Danial has been planning how he will make it to Germany, where he dreams of working in dentistry, for a few years.

He explained that living in Iran puts children under so much pressure that they are forced to grow up much quicker than in other countries.

For some Iranians, like Sara*, Trump’s threats fell on deaf ears. “He never does what he says he’s going to do,” Sara said. She explained she didn’t believe the threat of the attack, nor did she believe the promise of the ceasefire.

While there are those like Sara that don’t believe Trump, there are also those who have been left out of the ceasefire completely.

For 33-year-old Anthony, a native of Beirut, the day following the ceasefire in Iran was brutal: “What’s happening now is actually the heaviest strikes on Beirut since day one…I’m not sure if this is the final day, which is why it feels so horrible, or if it’s just the beginning.”

Anthony described the situation as one of the worst since the start of the war, with nonstop bombings over the past several hours. The relentless attacks have left many in Beirut doubting that peace will come to Lebanon anytime soon.

Despite the newly announced two-week ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that Lebanon is not included in the deal. He stated that military operations against Hezbollah will continue. Later in the day, Israeli officials confirmed new attacks on Lebanon.

“This is the largest attack carried out against Hezbollah’s infrastructure since the start of Operation Lion’s Roar,” Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on X.

Pakistan, which is mediating negotiations, said the ceasefire does apply to Lebanon, according to PBS.

Since the outbreak of the war, Israel has rarely targeted central Beirut, focusing its strikes on southern and eastern Lebanon and the city’s southern suburbs.

However, on Wednesday afternoon, Israeli airstrikes hit several densely populated commercial and residential areas in central Beirut without warning, hours after the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.

Wednesday’s airstrikes left dozens dead and hundreds more injured, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

Anthony, who has lived in Lebanon his entire life, and currently works at an NGO assisting the displaced people from Southern Lebanon, feels very skeptical about the future of his country.

“Somehow, Lebanon always gets hit the worst,” he said. “My father lived through this war, his father too, and now I am feeling the consequences of it. It feels like it has no end.”

In Israel, whose military is launching these very strikes, air raid sirens continue to sound across the country.

On a kibbutz in the Negev desert in Israel, Jared White, 41, watches his three young children jump on a trampoline and spray water on themselves while Israeli jets fly overhead. “This entire conflict I think of my children, and the world we will leave them,” Jared said.

No one slept last night, he said. Everyone was on edge from Trump’s threats to end Iranian civilization.

Just this morning, after many Israelis woke up to news of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, he and his family heard air sirens and ran into a bomb shelter. Rockets fell not far from his kibbutz. As he spoke to Iran War Dispatches, there were sirens sounding in the north of Israel, the site of many more attacks than where he is. His wife was inside their home, baking a cake for a holiday that symbolizes the end of Passover, Mimouna.

“People are a little bit skeptical,” he said of the ceasefire. “We all know this is not the end of the game.”

Jared feels he has more questions than answers at this point. Will his kids return to school tomorrow? Will he get called up to the reserves in the morning? Is this the way the war should end, if it’s ending at all?

“The uncertainty is the worst, by the way,” Jared said. “Not knowing what tomorrow will bring.”

The latest news at this hour:

By: Kateryna Antonenko

IRAN COULD OPEN HORMUZ BEFORE PEACE TALKS: Senior Iranian officials involved in the peace negotiations have told Reuters that the Strait of Hormuz could be opened on Thursday or Friday under certain conditions. In its 10-point ceasefire proposal, Iran included a provision allowing both Iran and Oman to charge a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman rejected the idea, stating that “no tolls can be imposed for crossing Hormuz.” Oman’s Transport Minister noted on Wednesday that the Sultanate signed agreements ensuring that ships can pass through the strait free of charge.

HEGSETH CLAIMS U.S. COULD STILL TAKE IRAN’S URANIUM: Defense Secretary Hegseth said that he hopes that Iran hands over its enriched uranium but that if Iran fails to do so the U.S. will “reserve [the] opportunity” to do it their own way. “It’s buried and we’re watching it, “ Hegseth said.

If the U.S. were to seize uranium by force, the operation would require thousands of ground troops.

IRAN CONTINUES ATTACKS ON GULF STATES: Iran increased strikes on Gulf states despite the ceasefire.

Just after the ceasefire was announced, the UAE said that Iran attacked the country with 35 drones and 17 ballistic missiles. This was a larger attack than on the previous day. Bahrain and Qatar also reported attacks from Iran and Kuwaiti officials reported that Iran launched 28 drones on Wednesday.

VITAL OIL PIPELINE ATTACKED IN SAUDI ARABIA: Two anonymous sources said that one of the pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline was damaged by a drone attack, The Financial Times reported.

The pipeline, where crude oil is carried from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export, became vital for the Saudi economy since the closure of the Hormuz Strait. It was attacked hours after Iran and the U.S. agreed on a ceasefire.

IRAN SAYS U.S. DEFEATED WHILE HEGSETH DECLARES VICTORY: Defense Secretary Hegseth declared a decisive victory over Iran, saying that Iran’s defense production had been destroyed.

Meanwhile, Iran’s senior adviser on international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, said that the U.S. was strategically defeated when it accepted the ceasefire in the Middle East.

Iranian state-aligned news agency Tasnim cited Velayati saying that Iran should be prepared to respond to any further threats.

LEBANON EXCLUDED FROM CEASEFIRE: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif, who brokered the deal, declared the truce applied “everywhere, including Lebanon.” But Netanyahu’s office swiftly contradicted him: the two-week ceasefire does not cover Lebanon. Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut continued. Lebanon’s status under the agreement remains unresolved.

Before the ceasefire was announced, the IDF issued evacuation warnings as the military prepared strikes against Hezbollah in the area. Residents were ordered to evacuate north of the Al-Zahrani River. “Hezbollah’s activity forces the IDF to act against it. The IDF does not wish to harm you,” said IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee.

OIL TUMBLES AFTER U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE: The announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran — contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz — triggered an immediate reaction across global financial markets. Brent crude plunged roughly 13% to $94.80 a barrel, while US-traded oil dropped more than 15%. Still, both benchmarks remain well above the $70-per-barrel level seen before hostilities broke out on February 28.

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Just over an hour before Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline, after which he said the “whole civilization will die tonight,” he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

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The words of the U.S. president on the morning of April 7: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

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Editor, Iran War Dispatches

The first of the two F-15 crew members was rescued alive on April 3, the same day the aircraft was reported to have crashed, according to Axios. 

The search and rescue mission for the second crew member stretched over 24 hours and had developed as some sort of race — Iranian state media and local politicians were calling on its civilians to search for the missing pilot, offering a bounty. 

A governor in Iran promised $76,000 for anyone who found the missing pilot, and state media announced that it was offering a reward for handing over the pilot alive, according to CNN. 

This fighter jet is the first known U.S. aircraft to be downed over enemy territory in this war. 

A second Air Force combat plane also crashed on Friday near the Strait of Hormuz at around the same time, and its singular pilot was rescued, according to the New York Times. 

These two instances come just a few days after Donald Trump said that Iran’s ballistic missile capability was damaged and its navy and air force were destroyed.

A month ago, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “We expect to have complete and total dominance over Iranian airspace in the coming hours.” These incidents make clear that this has still not been achieved.

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Search for second F-15 pilot continues… Iran refuses to negotiate in Islamabad… Iran claims essential goods are passing through the Strait… debris from interception hits Oracle building in UAE… Iraq closes border crossing with Iran after Iraqi citizen killed.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

Three Humvees descended the outskirts of Kfarkela, a Lebanese border town by the Golan Heights, kicking up sand behind them. The Israeli convoy moved north, following a strategic highway on the way to an equally strategic hilltop, past a series of caved-in roofs.

By the time they passed Elias’s house, he was halfway across the country, sitting beneath a polyurethane cover on Beirut’s waterfront. Most of his family now lives under the rectangular structure, next to ever-expanding rows of tents dotted with small fires.

Last week, the Israeli army received new directives to begin demolishing border towns ahead of what the defense minister called a defensive buffer zone. Elias’s childhood home and school, less than one mile from the border, are in this buffer zone.

As the Israeli war with Hezbollah threatens to permanently shift Lebanon’s borders, roughly one fifth of the country is now displaced. Many have found their way to Beirut’s public spaces, left to make impossible long-term decisions as the world shifts rapidly around them.

Among them are taxi drivers, salesmen, farmers, and doctors, as the war collapses ordinary social distinctions. One month into the invasion, Beirut is quickly becoming a symbol of what mass displacement does to a city.

In the last few weeks, Elias’s uncle had kept his four daughters busy, leading them in the construction of a proper lean-to. Once a building contractor in the south, he showed them how to counterbalance the nylon cables, affixing a series of tarps to the family van and a nearby streetlight. In the kids’ tents, he layered mats and pillows.

The real brilliance, Elias explained, was the other side of the streetlight, where the pair recently finished a covered room tall enough to stand in, filling out tarp walls with wooden pallets wrapped in cellophane.

That side was the first to go when the rain came.

After midnight on March 28, the Israelis conducted heavy low-altitude flights over Beirut. Hours later, while the daughters were sleeping in their tents, and Elias and his uncle sat smoking hookah, the sounds of thunder reached the seaside parking lot.

They unfurled the door and gripped the roof.

From inside the dark cover, they felt sharp pains of water and cords tearing. The cover of the new addition whipped back and, being attached to the original structure, split the old roof down the center.

Without the cover, the rain started pelleting the tents, waking up the girls. As they unzipped their doors to find the sky above them, it only took a moment for their cushions to fill with water. Then the aluminum poles snapped, and the family hurried to the van, watching through the windows as the water flattened their tents.

As a child, Elias remembers knowing not to get too close to the border. His family, owners of a prominent local private school, had a ring of houses in the hillside village, connected by large yards and a vegetable garden.

A year and a half ago, the last war tore through Kfarkela, when Hezbollah and Israeli forces took turns bombarding the border town.

Like many of the town’s residents, Elias fled to Beirut’s southern suburbs in a neighborhood called Ghobeiry, living with his uncle in a rented flat. The new neighborhood, like Kfarkela and much of south Lebanon, is predominantly Shia, the religious sect to which Hezbollah belongs.

For 140 days, he read WhatsApp feeds of town landmarks being destroyed, keeping a mental map of what had been hit.

Then, one day in February 2025, the Israelis withdrew, and Elias and his friends drove down to see their houses.

Over the sounds of curious Israeli helicopters, they set up chairs in the yard, smoked hookah, and reminisced about where the walls of their kitchens and their flowerbeds used to be.

For a year, Elias lived in the Beirut suburb of Ghobeiry with his uncle and four cousins, clinging to normalcy and trying to find a way to finish nursing school. The first displacement had drained their savings, but the family was slowly regaining its footing. Elias, 20 years old, promised himself he would take his last year abroad.

On March 2, 2026, Hezbollah struck northern Israel with a missile barrage, and within fifteen minutes, the family of six, plus Elias, was packed into his uncle’s car headed north.

For three nights, the family slept in a car in central Beirut, on the corner of the Parisian Hotel.

In the south, Elias’s hometown was once again a frontline, split down the center by Israeli convoys headed north to the real battle in the village of Khiam.

For days, Elias held out hope that the war might stay in Kfarkela and that the family could soon return home to their new house in Ghobeiry.

Israeli spokespeople had been publishing maps ordering evacuations from the border regions. By the end of the week, they were also releasing maps of Beirut, he said, with red rectangles superimposed on seven neighborhoods. One was Ghobeiry.

The family bought a few tents and made their way to a large industrial parking lot on Beirut’s waterfront, where dozens more families, dazed and tired, were doing the same.

That day, hundreds of thousands clogged Beirut’s main arteries seeking refuge from the airstrikes.

Elias jokes that you can tell, based on the tent, where someone’s from and how long they had to evacuate.

A man from Khiam lives in a small tent down the block from a neighbor he vaguely recognizes from back home. A family from Hayet Hreik sleeps under a large canopy.

A Bangladeshi domestic worker from a wealthy couple in the south pitches a bivouac by a row of Syrian families, almost all of whom, only months prior, had found safety in Lebanon.

During the day, some men leave the camp to work, driving cabs around Beirut. Other times, mothers teach impromptu school classes or lead rows of small children in chorus.

After a day of heavy strikes, the camp is sometimes blanketed in the suffocating smell of burning apartment blocks and furniture.

Elias has been smoking seven hookahs a day, up from his daily tally of three before the war.

At dawn on March 29, his hookah stand was caught by the tent and shattered during the storm. The family piled into the van as the rain beat down the boardwalk and their tent cover disappeared into the distance.

Elias’s uncle sat still, thinking about returning to the family house less than four miles away to grab fresh blankets and couch cushions.

There had been strikes in the suburbs the previous night, and since the evacuation orders, he and Elias had only made the trip once. They resolved to wait for the bulk department store to open, watching the rows of downtown coffeeshops turn on their heated lamps across the street.

Two weeks ago was the last time Elias visited his neighborhood. He had waited nervously in the car while his uncle ran upstairs and collected medicines, a coffee pot, and some clothes. The TV was still there, sitting beside the couch and the dining table.

The streets below had no parked cars.

From up in the mountains at night, the city of Beirut looks like it has a park in the center, a black void in the shape of their neighborhood.

The latest news at this hour:

By: Oleksandra Poda

SEARCH FOR SECOND F-15 PILOT CONTINUES: The second crew member of the downed F-15E has not yet been found. U.S. special forces continue their search operation on Iranian territory, while Iran is mobilizing its own population.

Iranian state media aired footage showing individuals heading into the mountainous areas of Khuzestan with rifles, searching for the missing crew member, according to The Washington Post. Earlier reports claimed that “many people” had traveled to the region to try to capture the American, while Iranian armed forces urged the public not to harm the pilot.

IRAN REFUSES TO NEGOTIATE IN ISLAMABAD: Iran has officially informed mediators that it is not willing to meet with U.S. officials in Islamabad and considers the U.S. demands unacceptable.

Turkey and Egypt are looking for alternative venues, considering Doha or Istanbul. Qatar, in turn, has declined the role of chief mediator.

GLOBAL FOOD PRICES ROSE BY 2.4% IN MARCH: Global food prices rose by 2.4% to its highest level since last September. The FAO’s chief economist warned: “Farmers will have to choose: plant less or switch to less intensive crops.”

The Strait of Hormuz handles up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers. The Iran conflict coincided with the global planting season, and every week of the blockade directly threatens the 2026 harvest worldwide, particularly in Africa and South Asia.

IRAN’S TASNIM CLAIMS ESSENTIAL GOODS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE STRAIT: Iranian media reported that Iran authorized the passage of essential goods through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. The letter cited by semi-official Tasnim states that vessels bound for Iranian ports, including those currently in the Gulf of Oman, must coordinate with authorities and adhere to established protocols in order to transit the strait.

At the same time, U.S. intelligence assesses that Tehran is unlikely to ease its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, even after the active phase of hostilities ends, as the blockade is an effective lever for maintaining sustained pressure.

China, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Russia are already on Iran’s “white list.”

DEBRIS FROM IRANIAN ATTACK HIT ORACLE BUILDING IN UAE: Debris from an intercepted Iranian drone fell on an Oracle office building in Dubai Internet City.

This attack follows the Iranian Parliament Speaker’s threat on American tech companies in the Middle East. Oracle, Amazon Web Services, and Microsoft Azure cloud servers located in the UAE serve millions of customers across the Middle East and Asia․

IRAQ CLOSED BORDER CROSSING WITH IRAN FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF AN IRAQI CITIZEN: Iraq has closed the Shalamcheh border crossing near Basra, one of the key transit points between the two countries, after an Iraqi citizen was killed in an airstrike on the Iranian side.

Iraq’s oil industry had already collapsed due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with Basra cutting production by 70%. Now the country is also losing its land corridor to Iran.

IRAN WAR CAUSING A GLOBAL AVIATION CRISIS: Before the start of the Iran war, the global aviation industry was expecting record profits of $41 billion in 2026. With jet fuel prices more than doubling, airlines are cutting flights. Air New Zealand and Vietnam Airlines are reducing available routes, while Korean Air is shifting to emergency management mode.

China has banned jet fuel exports to ensure its own supply.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Ian

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After the paywall:
–What kind of fighter jet is it?
–What do we know about where the jet comes from?
–What claims are being made by Iranian state media?

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The latest news at this hour:

IRAN CLAIMS IT DOWNED U.S. JET: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Friday that it shot down a U.S. F‑35 fighter jet over central Iran, according to Iranian media. This is the second time Iran has claimed it shot down a U.S. F‑35 fighter jet since the start of the war.

On March 19, the IRGC boasted about shooting down another U.S. fighter jet over the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command denied the loss of any fighter jets and said that Iran makes such false claims routinely.

HALF OF IRAN’S MISSILE LAUNCHERS INTACT: Despite daily attacks by the U.S. and Israel, Iran still has about 50 percent of its missile launchers and thousands of drones, CNN reported citing U.S. intelligence.

A large share of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles remains intact, which poses a major threat to ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

This report raises doubts about the White House and Pentagon’s claims that U.S. bombing has destroyed all Iranian weapon production facilities and left the country defenseless.

TRUMP VOWS TO ATTACK MORE CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE AFTER DESTROYING BRIDGE IN IRAN: In his post on Truth Social, Donald Trump showed a video of the U.S. armed forces bombing the new B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj. As a result, at least 8 people died and 95 were injured.

Trump threatened to continue attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that such actions will not compel Iran to surrender.

Over 100 prominent U.S. international law experts from Harvard, Yale, Stanford and other institutions published an open letter yesterday, condemning U.S. strikes on schools, health facilities, and housing in Iran.

UN RESOLUTION ON HORMUZ FAILS: Russia, China and France opposed a push to get the UN Security Council to approve using force to open the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, New York Times reported.

The resolution, drafted by Bahrain, is currently undergoing the fourth round of amendments before the next vote.

This comes after reports surfaced yesterday that President Trump had threatened to obstruct NATO weapon supplies for Ukraine if European allies didn’t help him to open the strait of Hormuz. In response, NATO’s General Secretary Mark Rutte urged key members to change their position. France, Germany and the UK agreed to “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.”

HEGSETH FORCES OUT SENIOR OFFICERS AMID IRAN WAR: The U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has asked three army officers to step down, the Washington Post reported.

Among them are Gen. Randy George, who was supposed to remain in his position until 2027, the head of the service’s Training and Transformation Command, and the chief of Army chaplains. Last year, five senior Army officers were fired by the Trump administration, so the Joint Chiefs of Staff will be remade almost entirely.

Most dismissals were carried out without explanation. There are over 50,000 U.S. troops in the region right now.

OIL REFINERY HIT IN KUWAIT: The Mina ​al-Ahmadi ​refinery, which belongs to Kuwait Petroleum ​Corporation, was hit by drones today, Reuters reported. Fires broke out at operating ‌units, but ​no ​injuries ⁠were reported so far.

This refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, has been hit by Iranian drones twice before during the five-week-long conflict.

MARINES TRAINING FOR AMPHIBIOUS ATTACK: The Pentagon published photos of U.S. Marines conducting a simulated amphibious assault on Thursday.

The images show soldiers of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which was deployed to the Middle East with as many as 2,400 Marines. The group is equipped and trained to seize territory, raising concerns after reports of the U.S.’ plans to seize territory in Iran, particularly Kharg Island, which was bombed by the U.S. and has critical oil infrastructure.

According to the U.S. General Command, around 50,000 U.S. troops, including Marines, are already deployed in the Middle East.

KELLOGG SUGGESTS NEW DEFENSE ALLIANCE: In his interview on Fox News on Thursday, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg called NATO ineffective in the Middle East war, and suggested that the U.S. create a new defense alliance.

Among possible members, he named Japan, Australia, and some European countries, such as Poland, Germany, and Ukraine, given its experience on the battlefield.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Oleksandra

Trump to abandon Ukraine if Europe doesn’t help open Strait of Hormuz… Trump threatens to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks… Europe expects fuel shortages this month… An air strike hits a century-old medical center in Iran… Iran war hits Australian agriculture.

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OUR LEAD STORY:

Since the start of the war in Iran, Sina thinks the revenue at his online cryptocurrency exchange company has been chopped in half.

But he can’t prove it. His accountant doesn’t have internet.

In Iran, which has been in a near-total internet blackout since the war started on February 28, that kind of problem is becoming common. Businesses that run online are flailing. Sina’s crypto business is one of them.

In Iran’s sanctioned economy, where inflation often soars above 40 percent, cryptocurrency, a digital currency that operates without a central bank and allows international money transfers, has become a financial lifeline. Just recently the Iranian government started to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is only accepting Chinese yuan or crypto.

But that lifeline depends on something that is now even more scarce in Iran than the dollar: internet access. Without the internet, people like Sina are finding that even the crypto workaround is starting to collapse.

As Iran’s currency reaches record lows and cryptocurrency is becoming both more necessary and more difficult, this war could be reshaping the Iranian economy for good.

Sina is 30 and is what’s known as a local cryptocurrency exchanger.

“Imagine you’re Iranian,” he said. “Your [country is] sanctioned. You don’t have those fancy Mastercards, you [sanctions stop you from using] any worldwide crypto exchanges.”

So when Iranians have hard cash but they want to turn it into crypto to save it from the rapid inflation, they find somebody like Sina: “I will receive the Iranian money with love and give them Bitcoin, or vice versa,” he said.

Sina remembers the moment he realized how weak the Iranian rial really was. He compared his finances over a two-year period, converting everything into U.S. dollars to get a clearer picture of his earnings.

“I was blown away by the fact that I didn’t earn a single buck,” he said, referring to the depleting value of his money. On paper, he felt richer. He had more Iranian rials, but in reality, it was worth less.

“That’s what happens to every Iranian,” he said. “They think they’re richer while they’re actually getting poorer and poorer.”

1 U.S. dollar is worth roughly 1.3 million Iranian rial. The currency has become so unstable that many Iranians no longer trust it to hold value. This collapse is what fueled massive unrest at the end of December 2025, which turned into bloody government suppression in early 2026, killing tens of thousands of Iranians.

Crypto is on the rise everywhere, Sina acknowledged. Internationally, it’s largely considered an investment, but in Iran, it’s something closer to a necessity. Without this war, “it would have been a hot season, I’m sure,” Sina said. “We would have had a lot of transactions.”

Sina didn’t dream of crypto as a little boy, but he stumbled upon the industry when his “Iranian dream” of becoming a doctor was interrupted by a part-time gig to work in Bitcoin.

He got swept up, fast. “I couldn’t even eat,” he said. He was so busy working.

Six years later, that side job turned into a company with 10 employees.

The U.S. sanctions on Iran have mounted since 1979, when the Islamic Revolution brought the Ayatollahs to power and Iranians seized the U.S. embassy.

In terms of sanctions on Iran’s financial sector, the country has been isolated from the global banking system. Sanctions not only prevent transfers between Iranian and international banks, but they also threaten punishment against any entity even loosely involved in these transfers.

This war is reshaping those sanctions too. On March 20, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to alleviate some pressure on U.S. markets, a move that temporarily reversed the very policies meant to keep Iranian oil out of global markets.

U.S. officials are now scrutinizing Iran’s growing crypto ecosystem, which hit about $8-10 billion in transaction volumes in 2025, concerned it is being used to bypass sanctions and move money abroad, not just by citizens but by the IRGC itself, according to Reuters.

As the U.S. was building up its military presence in the Middle East, Sina had a sense the war might start. He filled out the paperwork that allowed his car to leave the country and packed it up. Some clothes, a couple of pairs of shoes, money, and an emergency battery. He loves to travel (although his Iranian passport strictly limits the countries he has access to visit), so the idea of leaving the country for the duration of the war didn’t rattle him.

On the Saturday that the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran, Sina was ready to drive north to reach Iran’s border with Armenia, but he heard news that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had been killed and decided to stay for a few more days — back then it felt like the war might end really soon. He soon realized that the bombing would last a while. Four days into the war, he was at the border, and by day five he was in Armenia.

Sina’s days are a mix of digital and physical work when he’s in Iran. He facilitates transactions through his website and communicates with clients via Telegram, a messaging app. He goes to the bank to withdraw cash for clients, too, often hitting the transaction limits of just $1,000-2,000 at a time.

But now that his company’s website is down, Sina and his employees can’t access the website for transactions, so they rely solely on Telegram — an emergency measure, he said, as the platform itself requires spurts of internet to work.

Sina’s company operates in a legal grey zone. The Iranian government hasn’t gotten around to regulating it yet, so it’s neither legal nor illegal, he said. For those clients who are wary of digital trade, he meets them in person for a physical exchange, something he also can’t do now that he left the country for internet access.

Most of his clients are young men who are either investing or just trying to turn income they got from outside of Iran into hard cash. Sina’s clients tend to come from wealthier backgrounds, so many of them are able to circumvent the internet blackout by buying VPNs or Starlinks. As of now about half of them are still able to exchange with him.

Sina has dealt with internet blackouts before, most recently during the protests at the beginning of this year. Those moments prepared him to handle things manually, via Telegram, as he is now.

Sina was able to buy a VPN for his employees who are still in Iran, which one person can use at a time.

“VPN sellers are like the wealthiest people nowadays in Iran,” said Sina.

Nowadays in Iran, it’s clear that value is not just in the cash you hold. It’s in how quickly, and creatively, you can turn it into something with worth.

The latest news at this hour:

By: Oleksandra Khelemendyk

TRUMP TO ABANDON UKRAINE IF EUROPE DOESN’T HELP OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Donald Trump is threatening to stop the NATO supply of weapons for Ukraine if European countries don’t help the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Financial Times reported, citing people briefed on the discussions.

In response, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urged key European allies to change their positions. Previously, the U.K., Germany, France and other states expressed their willingness to ensure safe passage through the Strait in a joint statement on March 19. Today, 35 signatories that pledged to form a coalition and reopen the Strait of Hormuz will discuss further steps at a virtual summit organized by the U.K.

TRUMP THREATENS TO HIT IRAN “EXTREMELY HARD” IN FOLLOWING WEEKS: In his April 1 address, Trump reiterated that the U.S. military’s goals in Iran might be close to completion, but said that he was planning to bomb Iran “back to the stone age” in the coming two or three weeks.

Iran claimed that the war will continue until its foes are completely defeated and warned that its weapons production sites remain out of the U.S. reach. The Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei called the U.S. demands “maximalist and irrational.” To end the war, Iran demands a guaranteed ceasefire, but there have been no attempts to negotiate it, Iranian sources told France 24.

The oil market reacted to mutual threats with a new surge in prices. Brent crude rose by 7 percent to near $108 per barrel, according to CNN. Before Trump’s speech, it was trading as low as $99.08 a barrel, Financial Times reports.

EUROPE EXPECTS FUEL SHORTAGES THIS MONTH: In March, ports around the world were receiving oil and gas tankers that left the Middle East before the first strikes on the region, but this month, there could be no supplies. The Head of the International Energy Agency warns that Europe could face shortages of jet fuel and diesel by the end of April or in early May, CNN writes.

The International Air Transport Association reports a twofold increase in the

global prices for jet fuel, compared to February. In response, airlines had to increase air travel fees and cut flights.

IRAN WAR HITS AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE: Due to high costs from the war in Iran, Australian farmers are encouraged to switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops like feed barley, Reuters reported.

Some farmers are also reducing the planted area. As a result, Australia’s wheat planting might drop by 10 to 12 percent, as well as the cultivation of canola, of which Australia is the world’s second largest exporter.

Farmers around the world are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season begins in key regions. With the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, roughly one-third of global fertilisers cannot pass through, severely impacting flows amid the Iran war.

Since the beginning of the war, fertilizer prices have soared. For instance, the price of urea has risen about 60% in Australia.

AIR STRIKE HITS CENTURY-OLD MEDICAL CENTER IN IRAN: Iran’s health ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said that the Pasteur Institute, a historic medical center in Tehran, was attacked and extensively damaged earlier today, The Guardian reported.

He said this act was a direct assault on international health security and called on the World Health Organization and the International Committee of the Red Cross to support the reconstruction of the hospital.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Jacqueline

Editor’s note:

This war started on the last day of February. It is now April 1.

We will not stop keeping you informed with consistent news roundups and original reporting.

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The latest news at this hour:

UAE READY TO FIGHT TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: The UAE has informed the U.S. and other allies of its readiness to join a multinational naval force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Dhabi is lobbying dozens of countries to create the “Hormuz Security Force” and, together with Bahrain, is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of “all necessary means.”

U.S. COULD END WAR IN 2-3 WEEKS: Trump told reporters that the U.S. will leave Iran very soon, in about two to three weeks, with or without a deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump claimed the U.S. has largely succeeded in limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and is now “finishing the job.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran has the “necessary will” to end the war, but seeks guarantees that the conflict would not be repeated.

AMERICAN JOURNALIST SHELLY KITTLESON KIDNAPPED IN BAGHDAD: American freelance journalist Shelly Kittleson, who has written for Al-Monitor, Foreign Policy, Politico, and the BBC, has been kidnapped in Baghdad. The U.S. State Department has confirmed that the suspect, detained by Iraqi security forces, has ties to the pro-Iranian group Kataib Hezbollah. Kittleson had been repeatedly warned of the threat, including on Monday evening.

The FBI, the National Security Council, the State Department, Delta Force, and Iraqi counterterrorism services are involved in the search.

TRUMP TELLS ALLIES TO SOLVE THEIR OWN OIL PROBLEMS: Trump wrote on Truth Social: “All those countries that cannot get fuel through the Strait of Hormuz, such as the United Kingdom, which refused to participate in the destruction of the Iranian regime — finally muster the courage, go to the strait, and just TAKE IT. The U.S. will no longer be here to help you.”

U.S. gas prices crossed the $4-per-gallon mark that same day, for the first time since 2022. Trump is shifting responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz onto his allies.

HOUTHIS CLAIM MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL, WARN OF FURTHER ESCALATION: Yemen’s Houthi group said it targeted “sensitive sites” in southern Israel with a salvo of ballistic missiles in a joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah, reported Al Jazeera. Spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed the attack was successful and warned of possible direct military intervention if new forces join the U.S. and Israel against Tehran.

IRANIAN MISSILE HITS QATAR-LEASED OIL TANKER: An oil tanker leased to state-owned QatarEnergy was struck by a cruise missile in Qatari waters, the defense ministry said. Iran launched the three missiles, two of which were intercepted, with no casualties reported. The conflict has knocked out around 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas export capacity, threatening energy supplies to Europe and Asia.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Oleksandra

Trump may end the war with Hormuz closed… Iran denies any wartime negotiations with the U.S… Iran’s expelled ambassador refuses to leave Lebanon… Iran struck a Kuwaiti tanker… U.S. gas prices highest since 2022.

Editor’s note:

This is the kind of story that can only be told through on-the-ground reporting and through human-centered war correspondence. Putting a face to a headline is what we do best. If you agree, please support us. Subscribe today!

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OUR LEAD STORY:

TOPZAWA CAMP, Iraqi Kurdistan—On March 5, at 7:10 in the evening, Afsaneh Rahimi was working in the media studio at the Khabat Organization of Iranian Kurdistan’s headquarters when the drone hit. She saw it hit and explode.

“The noise was so intense that two of the Peshmerga forces were deafened by the blast,” she says.

She called the noise terrifying and horrific, words that land differently when the person using it is a Peshmerga (the word for traditional Kurdish armed forces which means “those who face death”) with eight years in exile under her ammo belt. All the doors and windows in the media studio shattered. The ceilings of some rooms came down.

Her first instinct was not to take cover. “As soon as I heard the explosion, I ran toward the home of Mr. Kak Baba Sheikh Hosseini, the Secretary General of the organization, to make sure he was safe,” she said. “We moved him to a secure location as quickly as possible, and then I returned to the headquarters to check if anyone else had been injured.”

Her actions — protect the leadership, account for everyone else, then assess — is an example of who she is inside the Khabat Organization of Iranian Kurdistan, a leader in one of the Iranian Kurdish opposition groups hoping to see the end of the clerical regime across the border. She says, like other members of Khabat, she is always expecting another attack.

“We sleep with our boots on, and our ears are always tuned to the sky,” she said days after the attack. “The camp is no longer just a place to live; it has become a military fortress.”

As the war enters its fifth week, the Iranian Kurdish camps in Iraqi Kurdistan have become both staging grounds and traps — and Iran has started making that point with ballistic missiles.

Since Feb. 28, Iran and allied militias in Iraq have launched more than 450 drones and missiles against targets in Iraqi Kurdistan. At least 14 people have been killed and some 85 wounded. Most attacks have been against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups and U.S. bases, but some have targeted the Kurdistan Regional Government directly. On March 28, the residence of KRG President Nechirvan Barzani was attacked by drones, causing damage, but no injuries.

Much worse, however, was an attack on March 24, when six missiles struck a Peshmerga base north of Erbil, killing six Kurdistan Regional Government fighters and wounding 30. It was the first time Iran had struck Iraqi Kurdistan’s military directly.

That is the trap. For years, groups like Khabat, Komala, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran have kept fighters here waiting for a moment like this one. The U.S. and Israel have done serious damage to the IRGC. The regime is weakened. The opportunity the Iranian Kurdish opposition has spent decades training for may finally be arriving.

They say they are ready to cross the border, inspire the masses, and take back their land from the mullahs.

And yet, to act risks pulling the KRG — with its oil fields, its Gulf investment, and its glass towers — into a war.

“Our training has doubled,” Afsaneh told me. “From the break of dawn until late at night, we are engaged in combat and tactical drills. The time for just waiting has passed. Every one of us knows that tomorrow might be the day. We aren’t just preparing for defense anymore; we are preparing for the moment we might have to take our destiny into our own hands.”

Despite the aerial threat to Topzawa camp, less than 20 miles northwest of Erbil, it had a welcoming energy. Afsaneh sat comfortably in a red plastic chair sipping tea as orange tabby cats lolled around, at ease in the shadow of war. She picked one up and cuddled it until it squirmed to be put down. She loves her cats. One had been injured in the strike, she said. It was nothing serious, just a paw wound, but enough that it needed treatment.

Topzawa was founded by Iranian Kurdish opposition fighters who fled to Iraqi Kurdistan after the harsh repression of the Iranian regime 26 years ago. It’s a strange collision of makeshift cinderblock buildings, grass pathways marked by attempts at topiary, with a note of shisha. Fighters in mismatched tactical fatigues mill about. Outside one building, a mud-caked pair of rollerblades sits abandoned by the door.

The camp was emptied of families and children some days before. A male Peshmerga — born in Iran, brought here as a child — secured the entrance, but asked newcomers minimal security questions.

The buildings were patched up, pockmarked by the drone attack, but many of them were also cheerily painted and the grounds neatly kept. There was no air of despair.

The drone attack itself left a 2-foot-wide crater against a bunker and started a fire against the wall of an opposite building, the charred remnants still visible. It blew out the glass in the kitchen, and it seemed the place had not been cleaned up yet. The media room where Afsaneh does most of her work also had the windows blown in and bits of glass litter the floor, but in the foyer to the building on the other side, an elaborate arrangement of flowers, which Afsaneh called “my flowers,” seemed untouched. This pleased her.

Afsaneh, 32, a Central Committee member of Khabat, has been here for the last eight years. Home lies on the lee side of the Zagros mountains about 65 miles from the border. It’s a Kurdish city where the judges speak Persian and a woman who wants a divorce from a husband who beats her finds the law stacked against her twice. Once for being a woman, once for being Kurdish. Afsaneh married young but the marriage was violent. When she wanted out, she said she had no legal recourse, no shelter system.

So she left. She arrived unannounced, she said — alone, from the city of Bukan in Iranian Kurdistan, carrying almost nothing. Khabat took her in and welcomed her, giving her a chance she never had back home.

She says she crossed the border eight years ago with her two daughters, then four and one, but has recently sent them away for their protection.

She chose Khabat deliberately, not because it was the largest or best-funded, but because it offered her, as a woman, more opportunities than some of the other six opposition parties. A woman can sit on its Central Committee, command units, make decisions that matter. “My opinion can outweigh three men’s,” she says.

That’s not a boast. Many Kurdish parties hold a more equitable stance toward women than many other political entities in the region. Kawsar Fattahi, a Central Committee member of Komala, another left-leaning Iranian Kurdish opposition group, said Komala, like Khabat, was one of the early parties to allow women into its Peshmerga units as fighters, not just as support staff.

“Do you know what our difference is?” Afsaneh asked. “Everywhere in the world, women are in politics. But having the permission to make decisions and be a part of the party’s politics and the party’s authority, that is very rare. But here, that exists. I, as a woman, can be a decision-maker.”

Should they move against the regime, Iranian Kurds would endanger everything their Iraqi Kurdish hosts have built. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, an Iranian defense official, warned the KRG it would strike everything in Iraqi Kurdistan if the opposition parties used their territory to attack Iran.

“Should their continued presence and plotting be permitted, or should these groups or [Zionist] regime elements enter the borders of the Islamic Republic through the Region, all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq … will be targeted on a massive scale,” he was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

The Kurdistan Regional Government, which has spent two decades building a quasi-state bankrolled by oil revenue and Gulf investment, is unwilling to risk that.

“They haven’t encouraged us to do something, and they haven’t stopped us from doing something,” says Kako Alyar, a top-ranking official in Komala. “But what I can say is that we are Kurds… We understand each other. So they know that if we get the possibility, we will go back to Iran.”

For Afsaneh, it’s personal.

“I can smell the scent of the Kurdish soil from the other side of the border more than ever,” she said. “It feels as if the mountains are calling our names. Being close to home means being close to danger, but after all these years in exile, I am ready to open my arms to any risk if it means my next step will be on the soil of my birthplace.”

It’s unlikely that the ballistic missile attack on the base near Soran was improvised. An attack with six missiles requires planning, targeting intelligence, a decision made somewhere up the chain of the IRGC that this mountain needed to be struck that morning.

Iran has so far issued no public statement, no denial, no acknowledgment, no claim that it was targeting opposition militants. According to KRG President Nechirvan Barzani, Iran privately told Kurdish officials it was a mistake and promised an investigation. But a senior security source within the KRG doesn’t believe that. The base was not an Iranian opposition camp like Topzawa, he said, but a KRG training facility used by regular Peshmerga units.

“There wasn’t any opposition there,” the security official said. “I’m sure 100 percent.” If that’s true, the question is what message Iran was trying to send, and to whom.

Afsaneh, on the other hand, has received no messages. For two months her phone has been silent. No calls, no messages, no smuggled word from family inside Iran. The regime has tightened communications in the Kurdish regions since the war started, and the networks that once carried brief, cautious calls across the border have gone dark.

“Still nothing. Absolute silence,” she says. “This two-month silence feels like a dagger.”

She does not know if her parents are alive. She does not know if they have been detained or questioned because of her. She does not know if the cousins and aunts who once passed messages have stopped because they cannot or because they are afraid.

“My prayer every day is simply that they are safe, even if I cannot hear their voices.”

Her daughters are old enough to understand why their mother sent them away. The political language — the committee member’s language of destiny and struggle — drops away when she talks about them. Her voice is a mother’s that knows the pain of absence.

“I stay here to build a future where no mother is forced to be separated from her children.”

That evening, the cats were still prowling about. Afsaneh walked me to the gate, and said goodbye the way people in these camps say goodbye when they do not know if the next meeting will come:

“God willing, I will see you in a free Iran, in a free Kurdistan … There, we will drink tea together, without the shadow of war and oppression hanging over our heads.”

Her fighters are still waiting. Afsaneh Rahimi sleeps with her boots on.

Afsaneh has no oil fields to protect. She has a concrete room, a position on Khabat’s Central Committee, and two daughters she cannot hold.

THE LATEST NEWS AT THIS HOUR:

By: Oksana Stepura

TRUMP MAY END WAR WITH HORMUZ CLOSED: Trump has informed aides that he’s willing to stop attacking Iran without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported. He said the U.S. should focus on depleting Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles, and then pull out of attacking Iran and continue diplomatic pressure on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, if the pressure fails, he will try to squeeze Gulf and EU allies to reopen the strait.

Trump’s statements follow his repeated threats to bomb power infrastructure if Iran doesn’t open the strait.

IRAN DENIES ANY WARTIME NEGOTIATIONS WITH U.S.: The Iranian foreign ministry denied that any negotiations with the U.S. are taking place and said that Iran merely received a negotiation request through intermediaries, but that all Iran’s efforts are focussed on repelling U.S. military aggression. The statements contradict Trump’s claims yesterday that peace talks with Iran were progressing extremely well.

After Trump’s initial announcement of peace talks with Iran, the price of oil dropped, easing economic stress on a chaotic global market.

IRAN’S EXPELLED AMBASSADOR REFUSES TO LEAVE LEBANON: The Iranian ambassador has remained in Lebanon after he was declared persona non-grata last week and ordered by Lebanon’s foreign ministry to leave the country by Sunday. The order came during an unprecedented crackdown from Beirut on the Hezbollah militia which has close ties to Iran, after Lebanon was invaded by Israel in response to Hezbollah’s attacks on the country.

IRAN STRUCK KUWAITI TANKER: A Kuwaiti tanker was struck in Dubai’s waters, early Tuesday, in an attack which Kuwaiti Petroleum Corp. attributes to Iran, The Washington Post reported. The tanker caught fire but no casualties were reported.

Crude oil prices saw a brief surge following the attack on the tanker, which has a capacity of roughly 2 million barrels, valued at over $200 million at current market rates.

U.S. GAS PRICES HIGHEST SINCE 2022: U.S. gas prices are at an average of $4 gallon for the first time since 2022 – over a dollar more than when the war began. In other places like Paris, gas has reached $10.27 dollars a gallon. This price hike is expected to raise the cost of other goods that rely on gas. Trump responded to nations frustrated by high fuel costs by saying that they should “get their own oil” and should buy U.S. fuel because “we have plenty”.

UN PEACEKEEPERS KILLED IN SOUTHERN LEBANON: Two UN peacekeepers from Indonesia were killed and two others injured in Southern Lebanon after an explosion destroyed their vehicle on Monday. This is the second fatal incident involving UN personnel in Lebanon over the weekend, CNN reported.

France has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting with its Foreign Minister condemning the attacks as “unacceptable and unjustifiable.” The UN body is conducting a formal investigation to identify the group responsible for the attack.

IRAN TO COLLECT TOLLS ON VESSELS PASSING THROUGH HORMUZ: Iran’s parliamentary committee has approved a plan to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Ships from the U.S., Israel and nations involved in sanctioning Iran would be banned entirely, The Guardian reported. However, in order for this plan to be enforced, other countries bordering the strait would need to agree to the proposal. Previously, Iran has reportedly allowed some ships through for a fee of $2 million dollars.

Stay safe out there!

Best,
Christopher